Biden's re-election odds fall amid health concerns and gaffes.
Former President Trump leads 2024 election odds at 61%, with VP Kamala Harris at 19%. Biden's odds dropped to 10% amid speculation on his candidacy's future and Harris potentially replacing him.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump is currently leading the odds for the upcoming 2024 presidential election with a commanding 61%, according to the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, follows in second place with 19% odds.
The odds for President Joe Biden’s reelection have dipped significantly, reaching as low as 9% on Polymarket, as speculation grows about whether Vice President Harris will replace Biden as the Democratic candidate. Biden's odds have since slightly recovered, standing at 10% in Polymarket's $226 million “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market.
On the prediction platform PredictIt, Biden’s odds have similarly declined, with share prices dropping from $0.25 to $0.20. Harris is now the leading Democrat candidate on PredictIt, though Trump holds the highest-valued “yes” shares at $0.58.
These shifts come amid increasing media and public concerns regarding Biden’s fitness for a second term. According to a CNN report, Biden raised eyebrows during a July 3 White House meeting with U.S. governors by joking about his mental fitness, saying, "I’m fine—I don't know about my brain, though." The same report noted that Biden has decided to stop scheduling events after 8 p.m. to ensure he gets more sleep.
The President faced further scrutiny the next day when he mistakenly referred to himself as the “first black woman” to serve as U.S. President during a radio interview, a clip that has since gone viral on social media.
Polymarket now indicates a 66% chance that Biden will drop out before the November 4 election, with Harris emerging as the most likely Democratic candidate to face off against Trump. Despite the mounting pressure, Biden has firmly stated his intention to remain in the race. "I’m not going anywhere," he declared during his Independence Day speech at the White House on July 4.
Neither Trump nor Biden addressed Bitcoin or digital asset-related matters during their first presidential debate on June 27. The next debate between the two candidates is scheduled for September 10.
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