History Suggests Bitcoin Will Rally Post-U.S. Election, No Matter the Winner.

History suggests that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 after the U.S. election. Bitcoin appears undervalued compared to prior cycles, whether measured from the cycle low or since the last halving.

Crypto markets are expected to remain volatile until the U.S. presidential election concludes, with short-term price movements likely impacted by the election outcome. However, once the dust settles, Bitcoin (BTC) could see a substantial rally if historical patterns hold. Since Bitcoin’s creation in 2009, three U.S. elections have taken place, each followed by a significant BTC rally, never returning to the election-day price. If this trend continues, BTC may peak roughly a year after the election.

Historical Election Impact on Bitcoin

During the 2012 U.S. election on November 5, Bitcoin traded at around $11. By November 2013, it surged by almost 12,000%, reaching over $1,100.

Four years later, in early November, Bitcoin’s price was approximately $700. By December 2017, it hit around $18,000—a gain of about 3,600%.

Following the November 2020 election, Bitcoin appreciated 478%, reaching a market peak of roughly $69,000 a year later and setting a new high of over $73,000 in March 2024.

With each cycle, Bitcoin’s growth has tempered, showing diminishing returns. The jump between the 2012 and 2016 elections decreased by 70%, and from 2016 to 2020, the decline was 87%. If the trend continues, with returns decreasing by around 90%, a post-election rally of approximately 47.8% could bring Bitcoin to around $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Current Valuation and Future Potential

Bitcoin is considered undervalued compared to previous cycles, regardless of whether it's measured from the cycle low in November 2022, following the FTX collapse, or from the recent April halving. This has been the weakest-performing cycle since the halving, with Bitcoin only 7% above the pre-halving price, further supporting the theory of diminishing returns.